Two factors predict Civil War ... both are flashing red for the US

Could Civil War happen here in the US? I’d like to say that war in our country is impossible, but we did it once before. Here's a look at this darkest of possibilities.

Overview: I’ve spent almost eighty years as a dyed-in-the-wool, bright-eyed optimist. For the past several weeks, I’ve created a weekly graphic review of the current US world of politics which meant combing through hundreds if not thousands of memes, cartoons, articles, videos, and podcasts. That effort has not made me an expert nor a prognosticator. It has, however, made me afraid … very afraid … of the direction we’re headed.

We are about 176 days into the second Trump Administration and our democracy guidelines and systems are being ripped apart. At the current rate of devastation, I’m not sure we can survive even to the mid-terms, let alone until 2028.

I was feeling desperate and deeply depressed when I came across the work of Barbara F. Walter, leading political expert on Civil War and the Rohr Professor of International Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, and a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

"Over the last two decades, the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled. Walter reveals the warning signs—where wars tend to start, who initiates them, what triggers them—and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable." -- amazon.com

There is a book, of course, which I’m just heading into now … but there is also a 13-minute TED Talk that will give you an overview of this critical information. I highly recommend watching it. I feel like she puts everything into perspective and offers a guide for what we have to do … quickly.

In spite of its flaws, historic and current, I love this country and have taken pride in being part of this experiment in democracy which has been a beacon of hope to peoples across the world. The possibilities of a Civil War have increased with the inauguration of this administration until in June of this year when a Newsweek poll found that a plurality of Americans believe that a “Civil War” is likely.

We must take this possibility off the table. This has to be the primary objective of the Democrats … not because we are right, but because we recognize it as a likely possibility.

Newsweek reports “Democrats were more likely to view a civil war as likely than Republicans. Seventeen percent of Democrats said civil war is very likely, and 31 percent said it is somewhat likely. Among Republicans, 7 percent viewed a civil war as very likely and 25 percent as somewhat likely, according to YouGov.”

War is like wildfire … it can start with a spark in a quiet forest on a dark night. Once started, if caught early, it can be quickly extinguished by prepared fire fighters, or, left untamed, it often rages out of control.

None of us personally experienced the horrors of our Civil War and we haven’t experienced war on our land since then. Few of us truly understand what that would mean. If we let this happen again, we could wipe out millions of US … as well as our entire economic well-being.

Here is a reminder of some of the losses from that terrible time in our history:

Data from Perplexity.ai

Data from Perplexity.ai

The death rate of that war (1861 - 1865) was the equivalent of 2% of the population. Today, that would equate to losing 6.8 million soldiers (the casualty rates do not include civilians.)

I will be writing more about this but would love to hear your thoughts.

From Perplexity.ai: Below is an expanded list of major civil wars in the past 35 years (1990–2025):

• Bosnian War (1992–1995)

  • A brutal civil conflict within Bosnia and Herzegovina, fought mainly among Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs following the breakup of Yugoslavia. Characterized by ethnic cleansing, massive civilian casualties, and the intervention of international forces.

• Somali Civil War (1991–present)

  • The continued collapse of Somalia’s central government after 1991 led to prolonged clan-based fighting, warlordism, and later a struggle with extremist groups.

• Rwandan Civil War (1990–1994)

  • Conflict between the Rwandan government and the Rwandan Patriotic Front, culminating in the 1994 genocide.

• Nepalese Civil War (1996–2006)

  • Maoist insurgency against the monarchy and government, resulting in thousands of deaths and substantial political change.

• Second Congo War (1998–2003)

  • Also called the “Great African War,” involved multiple African nations and rebel groups, with immense civilian suffering.

• Kosovo War (1998–1999)

  • Conflict between Yugoslav security forces and ethnic Albanian separatists, leading to NATO intervention.

• Afghan Civil War (multiple phases, notably 1992–1996, 1996–2001, post-2001 instability)

  • Factional fighting for control after Soviet withdrawal, the Taliban rise, and post-2001 insurgency.

• Liberian Civil Wars (1989–1997, 1999–2003)

  • Two major conflicts involving government, rebel groups, and deep social fractures.

• Ivorian Civil Wars (2002–2007, 2010–2011)

  • Internal conflicts deeply dividing the nation along political, ethnic, and religious lines.

• Syrian Civil War (2011–present)

  • Began with protests against the regime and escalated into a multi-party conflict, with devastating humanitarian consequences.

• Yemeni Civil War (2014–present)

  • Began with the Houthi takeover and Saudi-led intervention, causing severe humanitarian crises.

• South Sudanese Civil War (2013–2018)

  • Broke out shortly after the country’s independence, as factions vied for power and resources.

• Ethiopian Tigray Conflict (2020–present)

  • Started as a conflict between the Tigray region’s ruling party and the federal government, drawing in neighboring countries.

• Myanmar (Burma) Civil War Intensification (2021–present)

  • The 2021 military coup reignited and intensified longstanding insurgencies across the country.

• Sudan Civil War (2023–present)

  • Renewed internal conflict erupted between military factions, aggravating humanitarian disasters.

• Russia–Ukraine Conflict (Donbas region insurgency 2014–present, full-scale war from 2022)

  • Began with separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, later escalating to international-scale warfare.